'I don't have much confidence at all in the ability to predict the timing of a recession unless there's an event that's right in front of us that suggests that one is imminent,' Hamrick said. Recessions historically tend to be caused by black swan events - unpredictable circumstances that come as a surprise - that are difficult to precisely forecast, noted Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst at Bankrate. Meanwhile, the most optimistic outcome, with stronger GDP growth, comes in at 10% to 15%. economics at Bank of America, which the firm puts at odds of 35% to 40%. 'We still think the most likely alternative is a mild recession,' said Michael Gapen, head of U.S. While the firm is weighting those baseline expectations for a soft landing at 45% to 50%, other outcomes are still possible. Unemployment and other factors - growth in economic activity, wage and price pressures in the 'right direction' - prompted Bank of America to reassess its previous calls for a mild recession in 2024. Personal Loans for 670 Credit Score or Lower Personal Loans for 580 Credit Score or Lower Best Debt Consolidation Loans for Bad Credit
